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Saturday, 25 June 2016

EU referendum vote - the real winners and losers

The winners


The British public
Whether you voted leave or remain, this is a victory for the people. In recent years, the EU has proved to be a failed project and governance has returned to governments that are voted in by the people.

Boris Johnson
Bojo was a Europhile who in the late stages switched to leave.  Yes, he was opportunistic and yes he made a gamble. But it was a correct gamble despite what all the polls were saying right up to the vote.  Had there been a remain victory he would be finished right now.

Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP
Despite supporting remain, the Sturgeon and the SNP have got the result it wanted, it now has the momentum and moral backing for a second independence referendum thanks to a 60/40 vote for remain.  And it is likely to win such a referendum.

Ruth Davidson
The Scottish Tory leader was the only Remainer Tory who came out of the referendum campaign with any credit.  She was an unknown who was wheeled out in the last BBC EU debate at Wembley alongside her fellow 'B' team Sadiq Khan and Frances O'Grady then came out of it as a political big hitter.

The losers


David Cameron
He gambled and lost, nothing more needs to be said.

The europhiles within the conservative party
Cameron went for the referendum in order to prevent more eurosceptic Tory MPs from defecting to UKIP, now the europhiles are isolated.  I would not be surprised if the europhiles form a breakaway party or even defect to the Lib Dems.

Jeremy Corbyn
For a man who has been a long time critic of the EU from a left point of view, this has been a major misjudgement.  If he had stuck with his principles and led the leave campaign his standing would have been greatly enhanced and given Labour a great electoral boost.  Instead now his future is uncertain.

The Labour party and the left in general
From the results it was the Labour heartlands in the North and Midlands that carried Leave vote.  It was working class voters of all colours who basically won it for leave, the very same voters whom the remainers, especially from the left, labelled as racists, xenophobes etc.  The left failed to account for the working class grievances which included immigration.  The likes of Eddie Izzard, Bob Geldolf and Charlotte Church sneering at the leave vote only enhanced this gulf.  Labour is in danger of being a party of inner London, Manchester and Liverpool and a party for student radicals.  Unless this is resolved I can see a mass exodus of its vote to UKIP at the next election.




Sunday, 12 June 2016

Amber Rudd

When Amber Rudd was appointed climate change secretary by Cameron after the 2015 general election, I had thought of her as a very astute and intelligent politician, especially when she saw through the politicized aspects of the debate.  Definitely someone who was leadership material post-Cameron.  However, things took a different turn when she took part as one of the Remain team in the ITV EU referendum debate the other night, along Angela Eagle and Nicola Sturgeon. They took on Labour MP Gisela Stuart, Tory Minister Andrea Leadsom and Boris Johnson.  I had expected Rudd to put up a very strong case instead she and her fellow Remain team-mates kept using fear tactics and in Rudd's case using personal attacks on Johnson.

First she insinuated that Johnson's support for Brexit is linked to his leadership ambitions.


Then she came up this personal smear in her closing statement


The Brexiters must have been jumping for joy when they saw that.

Saturday, 11 June 2016

Battle of Adrianople 378 AD

Whilst I was considering whether to buy Rome Total War 2 for the PC, I came across this 4 part set of wonderfully made videos showing the problems of the late Roman Empire that led to the its defeat of the battle of Adrianople using the Rome Total War 2 engine.  As a background the Romans were defeated by a barbarian army of refugees/migrants who then had the right to settle within the empire.




Thursday, 9 June 2016

Do as I say but not as I do

Obviously the gender equality and anti-discrimination directives have not yet reached the upper echelons of the EU.



Great Brexit Question Lisa Nandy fails to answer (Question Time 05/05/20...

Labour shadow cabinet member and much touted successor to Jeremy Corbyn has a car crash moment on BBC question time.  She could have answered it by saying that Neil Kinnock has done a great job as EU commissioner.



BBCSP: CBI's Carolyn Fairbairn car crash interview ripped apart on in-EU...

Brillo at his best, I would not call this an interview more like spearing fish in a barrel. The message to anyone who is lined up face Andrew Neil is "do your homework".

Saturday, 4 June 2016

Muhammed Ali - Rest in peace

Today boxing legend Muhammed Ali has died, he suffered from Parkinson's even before he officially retired.  Unfortunately I missed out on seeing him fight in his prime.  The only fight of his I saw when I was little was the beating he took from Larry Holmes.  I have seen his "Rumble in the Jungle" fight with George Foreman many times online and on TV and that will be his best remembered work.  Rest in peace!


Gender neutral Sims

The makers of the Sims franchise have announced they will allow for gender neutral Sims in Sims 4. Unfortunately this comes a bit late for the Sony PSP version, I wonder if it will be rolled out on the Sony PS Vita.  I would love to create an Eddie Izzard sim, the question is, "will it confuse the CPU characters?".



Thursday, 2 June 2016

15 Remainer questions

One of the accounts I follow on twitter is liberalisland and the owner also has a blog, which I have cross posted (thanks liberalisland in advance).  It's views are on the Guardian reading/polenta eating/ceroc dancing left and not surprisingly it is pro-Remain. In a recent blog post it asked 15 questions to Brexiters and I will address them all below.


Will we still have access to the single market? If not what will the replacement look like?
"Yes, just like any other non-EU country. The UK and EU will need to negotiate a trade deal."

Will we be able to sell services, 78% of our economy, to the EU free of WTO tariffs? 
"That depends on trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. Don't forget there is EFTA which is a tariff free trade deal between the EU and non-EU European states."

What kind of non tariff barriers will we face?
"Ditto the comments about trade negotiations."

Will there be a visa system for holiday makers? 
"This is a very interesting strawman that just popped up.  I now live in HK and after HK went back to the PRC in 97, most HKers were given HKSAR passports instead of the BNO. The HKSAR passport allows visa free access to all Schengen states and the UK.  If EU countries want UK tourists then I guess it would be in the EU's interest not to put up visa conditions on UK nationals. Otherwise, if the EU puts up visa restrictions then UK people will just have to spend their holidays in the UK, thereby helping the UK economy and cutting down the carbon footprint.  This is a pretty poor reason for remain, methinks."

Will the CAP payments be maintained at the current level and for how long? 
"Can't believe you are using the CAP as a reason to stay.  CAP subsidizes farmers for producing more than enough cheap food, which is then dumped on the third world, thereby destroying local markets and livelihoods. Which then creates poverty, conflict, migration etc. CAP is actually a very good reason for Lexit as it benefits a few rich people.  Speaks volumes that you as a left-liberal should use this one."

How do we get future governments to guarantee CAP payments at EU levels? When agriculture, in reality, employs few people on the UK and does not have the influence of numbers
"See above regarding CAP"

How will we ensure that governments of different hues will maintain structural  aid, even when it’s directed at areas where it would give them no political gain?
"Why would it not continue to happen post-Brexit?  As someone who grew up during the Thatcher '80s in South Wales and later in Manchester, I saw lots of various government projects and aid pouring into both depressed areas."

Northern Ireland and Wales are net gainers from the EU budget. Will the Westminster government maintain this investment? 
"Ditto my comment above. Further why should UK taxpayers pay a larger amount to a supra-national body and then get a smaller amount back to invest in NI and Wales?  Why can't we bypass the EU in the first place and cut out the middle man?"

What is an acceptable loss of GDP over the next 20 years? 
"Why do you think there will be a GDP loss because of Brexit?"

How exactly will making our own trade deals increase the amount we export?
"The amount we export depends on the quality of our goods, service and the cost.  In fact it is possible that we could export more, without the shackles of EU rules and regulations."

Explain in detail the reasons you think food will be cheaper? 
"Blimey the CAP again.  The food is 'cheaper' because it is subsidized by EU taxpayers."

Leave campaigners claim we can cut the cost of regulation. Account for which regulations will be removed in order to achieve this lower cost.
"These regulations don't account for local cultures and business practices.  It is trying to force a one size fits all across the EU states.  A good example of this is the 48 hour EU working time directive which is unworkable and forced on the UK."

How are you going to address the very real fears of NI and Eire?
"Eire is a sovereign state, its people can deal with the EU themselves.  As for NI, what fears are you referring to?"


The Working Time Directive is often seen as a Cost to  businesses. Do you envisage it being removed from UK employment regulations, if so what would replace it? 
"I think it should be removed, what should replace it should be decided by British people."

The leave campaign claim fuel prices will be cheaper. If this is through a removal of VAT, where will the government recoup this loss in income?  
"This can also be decided by the British people."

How will you guarantee that a government in thrall to busines does not erode my right to paid leave? 
"You can vote out that government if enough people are dissatisfied with it.  Can you do the same to the EC commission?"

My feeling is that the Remainers, especially those on the left, believe that British people cannot think nor decide for themselves and need the hand of the EU to make decisions for them.

If I was undecided, this would not persuade to vote Remain.  To be frank this and other Remain arguments have the intellectual rigour a sixth form debating class and I have seen better pro-remain arguements on the off-top sections of gaming forums.